By agreement with the Massachusetts Secretary of The Commonwealth, the UMass Donahue Institute (UMDI) has produced population projections for all Massachusetts municipalities at 5-year intervals to 2030, using a model developed by Dr. Henry Renski of UMass Amherst. Detailed projections are available in this set by sex and 5-year age group for each city and town, along with a summary report on population growth in eight distinct Massachusetts regions. See the full list of downloads below.
Massachusetts Population Projections
Population Projections for Massachusetts Municipalities
Methods and Assumptions
Modeled projections do not purport to predict the future, but rather may serve as points of reference for planners and researchers. In general, projections for small geographies and distant futures will be less predictive than projections for larger populations and near terms. Like all forecasts, the UMDI projections make assumptions about how past or recent trends will continue into the future. For this set, we use a component-of-change method based on trends in fertility, mortality, and migration from 2000 through 2010, using a gross, multi-regional approach to calculating migration-by-age. Download the full methods description below.
UMDI wishes to acknowledge the critical advice and feedback we received in developing this product from a Population Projections Advisory Committee that included stakeholders and experts working in the field at the state and national level. See the Advisory Committee download below for committee member information.
The UMDI Population Projections represent the only publicly available projections set produced with age-sex detail for all Massachusetts municipalities. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council also produces detailed population projections for municipalities in the Greater Boston region. While both sets project similar end-year totals, individual towns may show great variances between the two sets. We encourage data users to review the methods for both to determine which set is appropriate for their own community. See also the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service for state-level projections and the U.S. Census Bureau for detailed national-level projections.
- EXCEL City/Town Totals
- EXCEL Age/Sex Details
- PDF: Long-term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities
- PDF Report Section II:
State Level Summary
- PDF Report Section III:
Long-Term Population Projections: Analysis by Region
- PDF Report Section IV:
Methods and Assumptions
- PDF: UMDI Population Projections Advisory Committee