By agreement with the Massachusetts Secretary of The Commonwealth, the UMass Donahue Institute (UMDI) has produced population projections for all Massachusetts municipalities at 5-year intervals to 2035, using a model developed by Dr. Henry Renski of UMass Amherst. Detailed projections are available in this set by sex and 5-year age group for each city and town, along with a summary report on population growth in eight distinct Massachusetts regions. See the full list of downloads below.
Massachusetts Population Projections
Population Projections for Massachusetts Municipalities
Methods and Assumptions
Modeled projections do not purport to predict the future, but rather may serve as points of reference for planners and researchers. In general, projections for small geographies and distant futures will be less predictive than projections for larger populations and near terms. Like all forecasts, the UMDI projections make assumptions about how past or recent trends will continue into the future. For this set, we use a component-of-change method based on trends observed in town-level fertility and mortality from 2000 through 2010, and regional, gross migration-by-age trends observed in data from the 2005-2012 American Community Survey. Download the full methods description below.
Researchers should note that any statewide method will tend to produce unusual looking results in very small geographies or in small age cohorts. Because we control town-level age/sex cohorts to the larger regional age/sex populations generated by our model, the age/sex distribution in small towns may look particularly irregular. We publish the full detailed series for all 351 municipalities — even knowing that the small geographies will be irregular — so that researchers may at least have the option of aggregating results across multiple geographies or age groups, and we encourage researchers to use their best judgment in deciding for which cases aggregate populations are more appropriately used. Researchers needing small-geography age/sex projections that are not controlled to the larger regions should contact our program to inquire about alternatives for their specific municipality. We can provide these alternative projections, upon request, as a public resource.
The UMDI Population Projections represent the only publicly available projections set produced with age-sex detail for all Massachusetts municipalities. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council also produces detailed population projections for municipalities in the Greater Boston region. We encourage data users to review the methods for both to determine which set is appropriate for their own community or to contact our program for guidance. See also the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service for state-level projections and the U.S. Census Bureau for detailed national-level projections.
- EXCEL City/Town Totals
- EXCEL Age/Sex Details
- PDF: Long-term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities
- PDF Report Section II:
State Level Summary
- PDF Report Section III:
Long-Term Population Projections: Analysis by Region
- PDF Report Section IV:
Methods and Assumptions